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Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Real Estate industry in flux.

Nat'l Real Estate Post:
There are 19 lenders sitting on top of $325 billion dollars of Heloc’s that are ready to reset. When they do, lenders are somewhat fearful that it may result in new defaults.
Back in 2005 there were a lot of HELOC’s that were made. Well believe it or not, many of them are still alive and kicking and are close to resetting. When they reset, the we either come due as a balloon payment or they will become amortized. Either way this can be a problem for many homeowners. The question is, will people be able to deal with it, or will they throw in the towel and default.
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Short sales, bank-owned sales and public foreclosure auction purchases accounted for 16.2% of all U.S. residential sales in 2013, according to RealtyTrac. This figure is up from 14.5% of all sales in 2012 and is higher than the 15.2% mark seen during 2011. -- Evan Nemeroff in Origination News.
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London lake and Towers shared by John Brody

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Fitch Ratings sent a note today warning that extended foreclosure timelines are increasing the severity of losses in residential mortgage-backed securities.
There are some bright notes for mortgage investors. Home prices increases from the last two years help offset extended liquidation timelines. -- Jacob Gaffney for HousingWire
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Where are home sales headed?

Realtors: Strength hinges on job market

"It looks as if the job market will expand which suggests another pick up in home sales in 2014. Will it be as big...probably not. We saw almost a 9% gain in 2013, but for 2014 we expect it to be closer to 5% or 6%," said Nationwide Chief Economist David Berson. "If you look at November and December together, they were the weakest months of the year, which was partly due to weather, mortgage rates and continuous home price gains." -- Brena Swanson in HousingWire
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Sortelha, Spain Shared by Xalima Miriel

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Builders unscathed by rising loan limits

Lone Star state comes out on top

"The larger public builders will continue to have superior access to capital markets and well-positioned land, enabling them to exploit the on-going cyclical housing expansion," Fitch Ratings noted in its own report this week.
According the latest National Association of Realtors report, in all of 2013, there were 5.09 million home sales, up 9.1% from 2012: the strongest performance since 2006. -- Brena Swanson in HousingWire
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3 dangers housing finance faces in 2014

Ambiguous, complex, and inconsistent enforcment ahead

The overly complex demands of Dodd-Frank, the rise of non-subject matter regulators, and the politicization of the regulatory process are challenges the industry must face going forward, because there’s no relief in sight until housing reform becomes a priority, which most don’t see happening before 2016. -- Trey Garrison in HousingWire
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Shared by Tina En

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Here's where Zillow says home values are headed

Real estate megalith expects some markets to have affordability issues

Homes values are estimated to rise another 4.8% through December 2014, but local market trends are expected to differ, which may cause confusion and uncertainty among homebuyers and sellers, the latest Zillow report found. -- Brena Swanson in HousingWire
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Freddie Mac reported a slight increase in mortgage purchases during December even though refinancings dropped to the lowest level of the year.
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Halkidiki in Greece, shared by Dimitris Xlias

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When some of the oldest, big mall stores hit never ending struggles it is significant — reflective of larger economic trends derailing middle-class consumers, one of the largest home buying segments.
However, from a broader economic perspective – with large-box retailers struggling and homeownership declining – perhaps, it's safe to say staples of middle-class life are dying a slow death…just like the suburban shopping mall. -- Kerri Ann Panchuck in HousingWire
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New home sales fell 7% in December

Market inventory reaches a 5-month supply

New home sales fell in December, falling 7% below November’s revised rate of 445,000 sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 414,000 units, the Commerce Department reported Monday. -- Brena Swanson in HousingWire
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Shared by Beny YHW

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Think Millennials are stalling the housing market?

Think again. They have nothing on reluctant thirty-somethings

For starters, rental prices keep going up, according to new data from TransUnion, which shows average rental prices rose nearly 4% from $1,034 in the third quarter of 2012 to $1,072 in the third quarter of 2013.

The credit risk of rental applicants also is improving, which suggests consumers are back to making enough money to cover their payments and are able to function in the rental market at a higher success rate.
Long term this is a positive trend for housing if these renters eventually make the transition to homeownership. -- Kerri Ann Panchuck in HousingWire
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First by state: The states with the highest percentage of delinquent loans include Mississippi, New Jersey, Florida, New York and Louisiana.
The states with the best record for staying current are Montana, Colorado, Alaska, South Dakota and North Dakota.
Really good news: In December, foreclosure and seriously delinquent (90+ days) inventories reached their lowest levels since 2008. Also, foreclosure starts were down 23% for the entire year. The total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate hovered at 2.48%. -- Trey Garrison in HousingWire
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Noravank in Armenia, shared by Jacob Surland
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Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Real Estate Summary News: The housing recovery isn't what the White House tells us.

Real Estate Summary News: The housing recovery isn't what the White House tells us.

The housing recovery isn't what the White House tells us.

The mortgage rate dip last week has resulted in application volume increasing nearly 12% on a seasonally adjusted basis according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. -- Brad Finkelstein in Origination News
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Reuters is running a pretty shocking exclusive right now. Apparently the Federal Bureau of Investigation, of all agencies, is investigating the claim that derivative traders are front running swaps orders from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

....this is proof Dodd-Frank isn't working. The financial reform made plenty to do with how it would regulate derivatives and how this was going to happen: "The Dodd-Frank Act divides regulatory authority over swap agreements between the CFTC and SEC." -- Jacob Gaffney in ReWired
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Shared by Philo Yan
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Non-QM [mortgage lending] is a huge opportunity, the largest we've seen in 30 years," said one investor with a hedge fund, who asked not to be named. "It's going to take a little time to sort out the details as an industry, but once we do I see a strong market ahead." -- Paul Jackson in ReWired
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Shared by Dieter Birr
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Here are the top six budget places to buy, with a ski resort next door, in reverse order:
8: Truckee, CA. ($379,492)
7. Steamboat Springs, CO ($357,497)
6. Mammoth Lakes, CA. ($341,425)
5. Red Lodge, MT. ($338,581)
4. South Lake Tahoe, CA. ($321,713)
3. Bend, OR. ($281,314)
2. Taos, NM. ($274,496)
1. Whitefish, MT. ($249,736)
Jacob Gaffney in ReWired
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According to Veros, here are the top five strongest and weakest #realestate markets projected for 2014.

Projected Five Strongest Markets
1. #SanFrancisco-#Oakland-#Fremont, #CA +13.4 percent
2. #SanJose-#Sunnyvale-#SantaClara, CA +10.7 percent
3. #Seattle-#Tacoma-#Bellevue, #WA +10.2 percent
4. #LosAngeles-#LongBeach-#SantaAna, CA +9.6 percent
5. #Midland, #TX +9.5 percent

Projected Five Weakest Markets
1. #AtlanticCity, #NJ -1.7 percent
2. #Kingston, #NY -1.7 percent
3. #Fayetteville, #NC -1.3 percent
4. #Norwich-#NewLondon, #CT -1.2 percent
5. #Rockford, #IL -1.1 percent
Shared by Tony Garcia
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Church in Lindau

Shared by Dieter Birr
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Georgia, the first state to file for Constitutional Convention.
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Fannie Mae is sending letters to lenders with new requirements for pre-qualifying borrowers.
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Shared by Dieter Birr
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The stock market is set for a bull run due to wars and rumors of wars and bad weather.
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http://sharedscience.org/2014/01/16/previously-unknown-pharaoh-discovered/
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The percentage of student loans classified as delinquent shot up by 13% in 2013, as other types of credit — auto, credit cards and mortgages — continued to see notable payment improvements, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York claims.
There’s only one conclusion that can be drawn from this – student loans are the new mortgages. Everyone under a certain age seems to have at least one education debt to pay off. And they are more expensive than ever as this debt sector expands to a tally of $1 trillion-plus in outstanding student loans.
With this expansion, comes fewer Americans who are financially stable or qualified enough to buy new or existing homes. But how troubling is the data, really?
D'Vari's take: "Follow the money because the next financial litigation battle is going to be an education about higher education." -- Kerri Ann Panchuck in HousingWire
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A thatched house in East Stratton, Winchester UK
image not displayed
Shared by Neil Howard

Saturday, January 18, 2014

The new year is here.  Make the most of it.
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Homebuyer demand took a sharper-than-expected drop in December, according the Redfin Real-Time Demand Pulse report that analyzes housing market demand based on home tour and offer data.
Offers declined 20.2% from November to December, compared to 16.7% during the same period of 2012.
Offers signed by Redfin customers dropped 20.2% between November and December 2013, compared to a 16.7% drop during the same period last year.
Homebuyers are increasingly concerned about their budget and overall homeownership affordability, argues Olson. “They're also worried about facing stiff competition in the coming months as more buyers enter the market." -- Amilda Dymi in Origination News.
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RealtyTrac released its U.S. Home Equity & Underwater Report for December 2013, which shows that 9.3 million U.S. residential properties were deeply underwater, or about 1 in 5 of every property with a mortgage.
That was down from 10.7 million residential properties deeply underwater in September 2013, representing 23% of all properties with a mortgage, and down from 10.9 million properties deeply underwater in January 2013, representing 26% of all properties with a mortgage. -- Trey Garrison in HousingWire
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Shanghai, JinMao Tower

Shared by Gia Huy Au Duong
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Nat'l Real Estate Post:  Bitcoin
What an interesting thing to consider. Let’s say you made a million dollars worth of Bitcoin in a year. Do you know what your tax liability is on that? Nothing. Yep, nothing. Can you buy stuff with Bitcoin? Yep, all kinds of stuff and now it appears houses are in that mix. Everyday more and more companies are accepting Bitcoin as payment for their goods or services.
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Nat'l Real Estate Post:
First on the list is QM of course. People might not be able to qualify for as much as they used to. There are going to be fewer loan options available to them as well since many lenders simply won’t offer programs that don’t fit the safest aspects of QM.
Then there are increased Loan Level Price adjustments. These are adjustments in pricing on a buyers loan based on their profile. Things like their credit score, loan to value and property type already impact the pricing on a loan, but this year they’re going up.
How about the “g-fee” increase? This is how the GSE’s make money. They increase them to make more money and supposedly encourage private capital into the market. When the g-fee increases, it makes it down the the rate sheet and your buyer pay more. Well, we have a new FHFA Director coming in, Mel Watt, and he’s temporarily put a hold on these increases until he can see why their being bumped. For now it’s slowed down, but you can expect them to rise.
And finally insurance. FHA mortgage insurance is expected to rise, especially if there’s another FHA bailout. Flood insurance it off the charts higher in some areas due to the Biggert-Waters Act and FEMA’s rezoning of many flood zone areas. But the one insurance that’s not going up is PMI. Private mortgage insurance is getting a little better with decreasing foreclosure activity.

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Shared by Uros Kralj
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Nat'l Real Estate Post:
In real estate news and mortgage news, it looks as though the McMansion is making a comeback. According to the NAHB, property square footage is on the rise and lot sizes are on the decline. Hey, we’re Americans. That’s how we roll right?
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The Federal Housing Finance Agency delayed plans to raise the base guarantee fee by 10 basis points on all mortgages securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, giving newly appointed FHFA Director Mel Watt more time to evaluate the changes. -- HousingWire
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Yaroslavl, Russia

Shared by Tina En
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Construction won't return to normal this year, but it will strengthen enough to be the main driver of the housing recovery as home price gains shrink, says investment manager Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
Average rates for a fixed 30-year mortgage will rise to 5.5% by the end of 2014, says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. Rates have already risen about 1 percentage point in the past year as the economy has strengthened. They'll be pushed up further as the Federal Reserve winds down its $85 billion monthly bond-buying program. -- Julie Schmit in USA Today
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Petra, Jordan

Shared by Toktam Na
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Nat'l Real Estate Post:
Unemployment is at its highest since the 1920's.  When people are unemployed for long periods of time, employers deem them less employable.  That means there are fewer people qualified to buy homes.  The gov't wants to extend unemployment insurance, this means another tax.  The problem with a tax like this is where to get the money. No problem. We’ll just go to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. You know, those two companies that are totally kicking ass right now making more money than any other government agency (thanks to their conservatorship), that a bunch of congress people want to tear down. Yeah, that company.  This tax will be in the form of a g-fee.  That means homeowners will be paying for unemployment insurance.
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Shared by Uros Kralj
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At year-end, single-family starts are up 15% from 2012, according to the Census Bureau.
Meanwhile, multifamily starts fell 18% to a 312,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in December from a 380,000 rate in November. Multifamily starts are up 25% year-over-year. -- Brian Collins in Origination News
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The real estate market forecast looks ahead for the 12-month period ending Dec. 31, 2014. The forecast covers more than 1,000 counties, 345 metro areas and 13,770 zip codes.
The company expects 5.1% appreciation over the next 12 months, rising from a 4.8% forecast last quarter and marking the sixth consecutive quarter where the index has shown forecast appreciation. -- Brena Swanson in HousingWire

Monday, January 6, 2014

2014, an unknown so make it good!

"There are good days and there are bad days, this is one of them," Lawrence Welk, American musician.
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Winchester Cathederal at Christmas, Hampshire England

Shared by Uros Kralj
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What can we make of the seeming incongruity of indicators in the housing market as 2013 comes to a close?
Mortgage applications recently hit a 13-year low. Existing home sales fell for the third consecutive month – and for the first time on a year-over-year basis in quite some time. Pending home sales also fell for the third consecutive month. But homebuilder sentiment rose significantly, we saw an enormous spike in housing starts, and existing home prices continue to creep up, although more slowly than they rose earlier in the year. --Rick Sharga in REWired
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Shared by Uros Kralj
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The year in review: HW memes revisit the top mortgage finance stories of 2013  http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/28409-the-year-in-review-hw-memes-revisit-the-top-news-stories-of-2013
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Sortelha, http://www.flickriver.com/places/Portugal/Guarda/Sortelha/

Shared by Xalima Miriel
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One of the nation’s largest wholesale mortgage lenders is telling its brokers they can no longer negotiate the amount of their fee with borrowers.
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“Borrower-paid compensation will no longer be negotiated and the ‘lender-paid level’ will become a uniform broker compensation level,” Provident Funding Associates says in updating its loan officer compensation policy.
Borrowers can still pay the broker directly, but the amount of the compensation must be the same as lender-paid compensation, according to the new policy that went into effect Jan. 1. - Brian Collins in Origination News
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Barcelona, Spain

Shared by Gia Huy Au Duong
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The coming year may bring an intensely activist and somewhat partisan Federal Housing Finance Agency, a general slowing of the housing market’s growth compared to 2013, and a full-court press election-year push on key issues influencing the housing and investments markets. -- HousingWire
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Nat'l Real Estate Post:
...real estate news and mortgage news we’ve got a new security on the streets. Instead of mortgage backed securities, we’ve now got CEO Stephen A. Schwarzman of the Blackstone Group packaging up rent backed securities. 
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Ceremonial room ceiling of a palace in southern Germany.  Shared by Klaus Herrman

FHA reform this year?


Shared by Maria Herodt, Sevilla Spain
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A recent study by the Competitive Enterprise Institute, aptly titled Tip of the Costberg, estimated that the total unreported cost of all government regulations -- not just those affecting the mortgage industry -- could be as high $1.8 trillion. -- HousingWire
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Georgia real estate prices slipped .2% in 2013.
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Conwy, Wales

Shared by Jana Travnikova
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If House and Senate banking committee leaders decide a larger housing finance reform bill that also addresses the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is out of reach next year, “they could easily pull out FHA reform and just get that done,” says FBR Capital Markets policy analyst Edward Mills. -- Brian Collins, Origination News
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FRENCH ALPES by Chantal Cecchetti
Aiguille du Midi • France via tumblr.com
See original on 500px.com/photo/50510026

Shared by Djordie Majetic
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A separate subset of higher-priced mortgage loans are exempt from certain appraisal requirements to help save borrowers time and money while still ensuring that the loans are financially sound.
The Federal Reserve, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Credit Union Association and the Office of the Currency of the Comptroller came together to revise certain aspects of Dodd-Frank.
Under Dodd-Frank, closed-end mortgage loans are considered to be higher-priced if they are secured by a consumer's home and have interest rates above a certain threshold. As a result, creditors are required to obtain a written appraisal based on a physical visit to the home before making the loan.
But under the new provision, loans of $25,000 or less and certain “streamlined” refinancing are exempt from the Dodd-Frank Act appraisal requirements that go into effect on Jan. 18, 2014.
The final rule also allows the requirements for manufactured homes to be postponed until July 18, 2015, since they can be difficult to appraise.
However, they are only exempt on the appraiser having to visit the home. Creditors will instead need to use other valuation methods without an appraisal, such as third-party valuation services or “book values.”
Compliance with the January 2013 final rule will become mandatory on Jan. 18, 2014. -- Brena Swanson in HousingWire
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South Stream, Bled, Slovenia

Shared by Djordie Majetic
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State regulators are pushing for broader exemptions for community banks under new mortgage rules due to take effect next month. -- Rachel Witkowski in Origination News.
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Lending

Policy makers miss housing's sweet spot: The American Middle Class

"People who had been moving forward without college educations (or with them) – getting ahead of where the middle class was -- are now falling back into the middle class," he says. Other members of this new middle class are college graduates, who are stifled by student debt payments and a desire to find apartments that are both affordable and safe.
The problem, says Finkel, is the product they want is not out there in the multifamily segment. And new multifamily construction seems to come in the form of Class-A multifamily housing that caters to higher-income professionals. So will private capital jump in and provide the multifamily market the financing that is needed?
Not likely, says Finkel.
This middle-class group needs affordable, multifamily housing where the rent runs somewhere between $750 to $1,100 per month. Yet, he says, "given the cost of new construction today, in order to make the financing work, developers would need to charge $2,000 a month for an apartment. This is why when you look at new supply in the apartment world, it’s all Class-A rentals in city centers in downtown areas where high-end, educated renters are going to come," Finkel explained.
Kerri Ann Panchuck in HousingWire
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Fannie Mae stopped foreclosure eviction for the holidays, but renewed efforts starting January 3, 2014.
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Interesting style

Shared by Dieter Birr
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