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Friday, June 28, 2013

We still need housing inventory.

40% of households in the US now think it is a good time to sell.  This is up from 30% in April.
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Sometimes one pays most for things that cost nothing. -- From Commercial Lending
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The housing market is now 61% of the way back to normal – a big jump from 35% one year ago. That’s the first time Trulia’s Housing Barometer has crossed 60%. The recovery has reached full-fledged teenager status, with awkward, sudden growth spurts and parents – the Fed – who now threaten to take away its allowance by winding down measures that pushed mortgage rates down to historic lows, writes Trulia.
Before long, the recovery should make it into adulthood, but it will face some grown-up challenges in the next couple of years: still-tight mortgage credit for many borrowers, a slow jobs recovery for young adults, and unaffordable housing in large coastal markets, Trulia ($30.20 -0.505%) reported.  Jed Kolko in Trulia
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What did it say? The data covers various cities plus national composites. For the 12 months ending April 2013, average home prices rose 12.1% in the 20-city composite. In April alone, composite prices jumped 2.5%. This was the highest monthly gain in S&P/Case-Shiller history.
Is this a recovery? After the last few years, it may be more of a dead-cat bounce. However, the report had a few other positive signs.

  • All 20 cities in the composite had annual price gains for the fourth-consecutive month.
  • Atlanta, Dallas, Detroit and Minneapolis posted their highest-ever annual gains in April.
  • In April, Detroit was the only city in the index where housing prices fell.
  • Atlanta, Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Francisco are the hottest markets, with home prices up more than 20% since the same time last year.
  • As of April 2013, average home prices across the United States are back to their early 2004 levels for both the 10-City and 20-City Composites. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks, the peak-to-current decline for both Composites is approximately 26-27%. The recovery from the March 2012 lows is 13.1% and 13.6%, respectively.
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SAC FCU, Bellevue, Neb., is offering a new mortgage that charges a 3% down payment, no prepayment penalty, terms up to 30 years and in-house servicing.

This product is aimed at first-time home buyers, but the credit union said it also may be beneficial to move-up home buyers.
First-time home buyers may qualify for no lender closing costs.
“This program can help buyers who need down payment assistance or reduced out-of-pocket expenses at a time when home sales are gaining strength,” said Alan Stoltenberg, vice president of mortgages at the $675-million credit union.
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Second-home sales shift to Generation X




By Megan Hopkins
• June 21, 2013 • 5:04pm


Friday, June 21, 2013

Honesty makes things flow more smoothly.

Chasing Excellence with Rick Floyd:  The Compassionate Samurai chapter 5:  Honesty helps make things flow smoother.  Dishonesty slows progress of organizational development, family growth, personal growth and even mental expansion.  Even little white lies here and there have their consequences.  Dishonesty hinders growth and potentially hinders something awesome from even getting off the ground.
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Current mortgage interest rate: 4.12% for a 30 yr fixed and 3.3% for a 15 year fixed. -- Bankrate.com
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California home prices recently increased the most in 33 years as a result of strong sales growth in higher-priced markets and a continued housing supply shortage, the California Association of Realtors claims in a new report. HousingWire
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Nat'l Real Estate Post:
A law suit against Well Fargo is including lowering the cost of BPO's to $30.  Would you do a bpo for $30? 
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The Standard & Poor’s baseline economic forecast expects an increase in total housing starts of about 28% this year, to 1 million units. In 2014, another 29% increase is anticipated, with starts reaching 1.3 million units.-- HousingWire
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Residential construction starts rose in May while permitting for new construction was down slightly the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development said today. Privately-owned housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 914,000, a 6.8 percent increase from April's revised estimate of 856,000. Starts were 28.6 percent higher than a year ago when the rate was 711,000 units. The revision to the April housing starts number raised the estimate from 853,000 units.

At the end of the reporting period there were an estimated 620,000 residential units under construction; 305,000 single family and 305,000 units in multifamily buildings. All of these numbers represented 2 to 3 percent increases over April figures. There were 100,000 permits outstanding at the end of the month for which construction had not yet started. 44,500 of those units were for multifamily construction. -- Jann Swanson in Mortgage News Daily
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Nat'l Real Estate Post:
Builders are happy, happy, happy.  They are getting permits for new homes, they are building new homes and the public is buying the new homes.  However, most re agents are only somewhat happy. 
Bank of America is being sued for not allowing HAMP loans.  They are accused of dragging their feet, telling their people to stall files, repeatedly ask for paperwork, lie and deny qualified files, and if any files were over 60 days to clear them out.  Then they are accused of offering their own modification where they could charge three more points than they could on a HAMP.  It is also alledged that they gave cash bonuses and gift cards to employees who met their foreclosure quotas.  They have affidavits from employees outlining this.
Since interest rates have topped 4%, refi's will start drying up.  The way banks will make money is to loosen credit requirements in order to encourage buyers to buy.
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"It is what you learn after you know it all that counts."
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Succinctly, power can be defined as a force. I agree with Linda and Navah in their well written descriptions of power such as the "ability to accomplish...strategic initiatives" and the "ability to leverage." Additionally, power is a force that must be managed within multiple dimensions or multifaceted (system) dynamics which can include layers of relational, situational, cultural, personal, institutional, style, timing, intuition, competency,understanding where you are in business and management life cycles, requires acute self awareness, empathy (awareness of others), political acumen, EQ, ability to influence or command, and resiliency -just to name a few. The key to harnessing the force(s) of power effectively is to know precisely how, what,and when to orchestrate and execute. Therefore, managing power is an art. Managing power successfully whether in the board room, with in a family structure, personal, or corporately requires constructive and proactive boundary management and it can be a balancing act with constant tweaking and fine tuning. --Carol Anne Embler on linkedin.
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Home builders and lumber dealers are facing a significant shortage of materials necessary for building a home, such as lumber and wall board, according to the National Association of Home Builders and the National Lumber and Building Material Dealers Assocation.
He (NAHB chief economist David Crowe) added, "In 2004 and 2005 the home building industry was producing over 1.8 million new homes a year, while the current rate of new housing starts is still below 1 million."  -- HousingWire
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In 2012, natural hazards caused $122 billion in total losses across the country, according to Munic RE, and $62 billion in insured losses. -- HousingWire
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Nat'l Real Estate Post:
Last year the US created more millionaires than any other country in the world.  Rising stocks and a stronger real estate market were to blame.
RBC Million says we created a many millionaires in real estate.
FHA will be pulling out of the reverse mortgage market.
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Twenty percent of foreclosures nationwide sit empty after an owner vacated the premises, representing 167,000 distressed properties across the country, RealtyTrac announced Thursday.

.... laws designed to keep the housing market afloat and to prevent a flood of distressed assets make it more difficult to move assets that could benefit from full-time ownership.

States where the percentage of owner-vacated foreclosures hovers well above the national average of 20% include Indiana (32%); Oregon (28%); Nevada (28%); Washington (27%); and Georgia (27%).
 kpanchuck@housingwire.com
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Wells Fargo is calling for higher interest rates because near zero rates are masking things that should be happening on the fiscal side.  NAR says buyer traffic is up 29% from last year. 
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Jill Pierce is Team Leader in NW Georgia with RealEstateAuctions.com

 

Friday, June 14, 2013

Is eminent domain coming?

The bottom line: The combined market value for Fannie and Freddie briefly hit $48 billion, even as lawmakers aim to shut them down for good.  -- By , , and  in Bloomberg Businessweek

Markets & Finance

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In June, housing demand is high, inventory is low, credit is still tight and home prices are up.  Median days on the market is 46.  Median home price reached $192,800.

Mortgage rate graph
Find the best mortgage rates in your area.
Mortgage rates30-year fixed15-year fixed5/1 ARM30-year jumbo
6/12/20134.143.323.04.32
6/5/20134.13.282.934.27
5/29/20133.993.212.974.2
5/22/20133.742.972.73.99
5/15/20133.712.922.683.99
5/8/20133.62.822.644.0
5/1/20133.522.752.633.93
4/24/20133.572.82.653.98
4/17/20133.612.852.663.98
4/10/20133.642.892.74.03
4/3/20133.732.952.724.07


Read more: http://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/current-interest-rates.aspx#ixzz2WDFi13CR
Follow us: @Bankrate on Twitter | Bankrate on Facebook
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Atlanta needs developed lots for builders.  Know any?  Not having developed lots will slow down construction and therefore housing inventory.
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Nat'l Real Estate Post:
It's Friday which means for the overachieving producers it's another day of work tomorrow.  For everyone else, enjoy the weekend.
Foreclosures are up because now banks think they can get a decent price for the property and it may not last.  Foreclosure activity is up 11% from last month.  N. Carolina is up 60%, Oregon up 47%, Washington and Illinois up 44%, Colorado 23% and Michigan up 19%.
The US Senate is trying to pass a bill which would cap lending to 15% of the bank's assets.  Currently, Wells Fargo is at 17.8%.  They can reduce their lending to 15% by stopping lending or raising rates or only taking the very best buyers. 
FHA has paid back $55.1 million of the $187 million they owe.  However, the Treasury is taking all the profits to pay the dividends on the stocks owned by consumers, so the debt stays intact.  Sounds like Tony Soprano.
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Though overall new home sales are expected to continue rising in future months, rising input costs are a concern. Building material and labor costs are expected to inflate. As housing starts accelerate, both labor and construction material costs would continue to experience upward pricing pressure, curbing profitability of homebuilders. Moreover, difficulty in obtaining construction loans and tightened lending standards are making it tough for homebuilders, especially the smaller ones, to effectively respond to increasing demand. -- Zach's Equity Research
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The mortgage bond investor community is highly opposed to the proposed use of eminent domain to seize mortgages. Nonetheless, the concept is spreading and three Congressmen went on the record to say they agree with investors.
"We are concerned that the proposed use of eminent domain would slow the return of private capital to the housing finance system, and threaten our fragile housing recovery," write California House Republicans John Campbell, Gary G. Miller and Ed Royce in a letter to Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan. --
By Jacob Gaffney in HousingWire
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Nat'l Real Estate Post:
New York Fed Reserve chairman Robert Hawkit wants eminent domain.  He says local municipalities should seize the mortgages and restructure the loans to purchase the late mortgages at market value and restructure the loan with the home owner.  But in three months, 1/10 of the underwater homes rose out of the water.  So maybe inaction is the best course of action.  What are the unforeseen consequences?  This would be the seizure of thousands of individual mortgages and at who's value?  Who determines the value?  Would the mortgage holder be able to rebut it?  This might have been a good idea two or three years ago, but right now with rising home prices, it is outdated.

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Housing prices rising as well as consumer confidence.

....respondents who believe now is a good time to sell a home reached a record high of 40% in May, compared to 30% in April and 16% from the previous year. (According to Fannie Mae.) -- cmlynski@housingwire.com
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Nat'l Real Estate Post:
Interest rates are rising.  Buyers are ready to buy, but agents need to tell customers and clients about this opportunity. 
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Staging tips for agents:
#1  Be blunt, give feed back, don't hold back.  Let your client know what works and what doesn't.        (But say it with a smile.)
#2  Be inspired, tour other homes.  Get your client to visit other open houses to see the competition.
#3  Be clutter free, get your clients to pre-pack. Remove personal decorations so that the buyers can see themselves in the space.
#4  Make it neutral.  Help your clients by sharing Trulia’s 10 Hardcore Staging Tips for Serious Sellers.
#5  Be neutral, but make sure it is staged.
#6  Never show an empty home. It can make the space feel smaller than it is. 
#7  Remind clients that they may need to spend money to make a whole lot more.
Paraphrased from Josh Altman's Selling The Dream in Trulia
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Real Estate Matters: Is the housing crisis over? Maybe not for minorities.

If the American Dream is going to continue, with the next generation doing better than the present one, housing will remain a significant part of it. And the vast majority of Americans have to feel as though the dream is alive for them and their families.  Illyce Glink in the Washington Post.  (To read the entire post go to the following link http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/where-we-live/wp/2013/06/11/real-estate-matters-is-the-housing-crisis-over-maybe-not-for-minorities/
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Given the limited housing inventory, net demand in April has climbed to the highest level since 2006.
Home prices could grow as high as 7.2% in 2013, JPMorgan Chase concluded in a new report.  -- cmlynski@housingwire.com
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A plan involves steps that are largely under your influence and control. A plan involves the hard and dreary and difficult work of a thousand brave steps, of doing things that might not work, of connecting and caring and bringing generosity when we don't think we have any more to bring. --From Seth Godin's blog June 12, 2013.
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"During the past year, 1.7 million borrowers have regained positive equity. We expect the pent-up supply that falling negative equity releases will moderate price gains in many of the fast-appreciating markets this spring," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.
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Jill Pierce is Team Leader for RealEstateAuctions.com

Sunday, June 9, 2013

Fannie and Freddie in the news again.

Mortgage rates to be 4% by the end of 2013 says Fannie Mae and National Association of Realtors.
Sonja Bullard at Angel Oak--
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Although 90% of renters expect to purchase a home in the future, most believe it would be difficult to get a mortgage today, according to respondents to Fannie Mae’s recent survey. -- Christine Mlynski at HousingWire
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If you happen to be in Columbus (Georgia) and see a flaming car launched from a bridge, it may not be some hapless Alabaman attempting to cross the river after saying, "Hold my beer, and y'all watch this...." as "Need for Speed" is filming in town and apparently that requires flinging lit cars off bridges.  Todd Rehm in GaPundit
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Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher just ended the discussion.  He has given the "Sell" signal.  Let's see how this affects the housing market. 
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"In the first quarter of 2013, homeowners' equity grew by more than $815 billion, reaching its highest level since the first quarter of 2008." Kurt Usowoski
Purchases of existing and new homes remain strong, with existing-home sales up from 411,700 in March to 414,200 in April, according to data gathered from the National Association of Realtors. Meanwhile, new home sales rose from 37,000 in March to 37,800 in April, says data from the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD. -- cmlynski@housingwire.com
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Millennials are wanting to buy homes, but as of yet are not embracing large amounts of debt.  We should see in the next several years what will entice them into the housing market. 
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The recovery in the housing market will continue to strengthen this year and next year, according to a group of bank economists.
They are forecasting that new home sales will be up 25% this year compared to 2012 and home prices will rise 5% to 6% in 2013 and 2014 based on the Federal Housing Finance Agency house price index. -- Brian Collins in Origination News
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Nat'l Real Estate Post:
Congress is continuing  to discuss divesting the federal gov't of Fannie and Freddie.  The G-fees will continue to rise to entice private mortgages back into the market.  FHA on the other hand is showing a $16 billion shortfall.  (My question is does this account for all the different accounts FHA has or are they only allowed to use money in one account?)
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12 clear signals that the US economy is about to really slow down:
#1 The average interest rate on a 30 year mortgage has risen above 4 percent for the first time in more than a year.

#2 The decline in the number of mortgage applications last week was the largest drop that we have seen since June 2009.

#3 Mark Hanson is reporting that "mass layoffs" have occurred at three large mortgage institutions...

This morning I was made aware that three large private mortgage bankers I follow closely for trends in mortgage finance ALL had mass layoffs last Friday and yesterday to the tune of 25% to 50% of their operations staff (intake, processing, underwriting, document drawing, funding, post-closing).

This obviously means that my reports of refi apps being down 65% to 90% in the past 3 weeks are far more accurate than the lagging MBA index, which is likely on its' way to print multi-year lows in the next month.

#4 It was just announced that average hourly compensation in the United States experienced its largest drop since 2009 during the first quarter of 2013.

#5 As I wrote about the other day, the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index declined to 49.0 in May. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction. That was the first contraction in manufacturing activity in the U.S. that we have seen since 2009.

#6 The inventory to sales ratio has hit a level not seen since 2009. That means that there is a lot of inventory sitting out there that people are not buying.

#7 According to the Commerce Department, the demand for computers dropped by a stunning 9 percent during the month of April.

#8 As I noted in a previous article, corporate revenues are falling at Wal-Mart, Proctor and Gamble, Starbucks, AT&T, Safeway, American Express and IBM.

#9 Job growth at small businesses is now at about half the level it was at the beginning of the year.

#10 The stock market is starting to understand that all of these numbers indicate that the U.S. economy is really starting to slow down. The Dow was down 216.95 points on Wednesday, and it dropped below 15,000 for the first time since May 6th.

#11 The S&P 500 has now fallen more than 4 percent since May 22nd. Is this the beginning of a market "correction", or is this something much bigger than that?

#12 Japanese stocks are now down about 17 percent from the peak of May 22nd. Japan has the third largest economy on the planet and it is one of the most important trading partners for the United States. A major financial crisis in Japan would have very serious implications for the U.S. economy.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com
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Jill Pierce is Team Leader for RealEstateAuctions.com

Thursday, June 6, 2013

Mortgage companies and home builders' kickbacks. Tsk, tsk.

Nat'l Real Estate Post:
The CFPB is going after mortgage companies and home builders who have a kick back relationship.  All fines will go to the Treasury Dept.  They are also looking at mortgage companies who have similar relationships with real estate agents. The real estate agents have NAR on their side, so have a clear advantage over home builders and MLO's.
When your client gets a home loan (and because of rules I can't begin to understand), it might be cheaper for the home buyer to pay the up front fees than to get a no fee or low fee mortgage.  Be sure to warn your clients and check out the monthly payments both ways if they qualify.
Non-profit and community based lenders will be allowed to exceed the 43% debt-to-income ratio rule for low to middle income buyers so they can purchase affordable housing.
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There is untapped demand for walkable neighborhoods in mountain communities of the interior West.  Could this also apply to the rest of rural America?  Builders need to take this into account when planning communities and subdivisions.  I would bet this would include schools within walking distance.  So, local gov'ts need to encourage growth by allowing this kind of development.  This is my take on Christina Mlynski's article in Housing Wire.
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Single family serious delinquency rates fell to 2.93% down 9 basis points in April.  Multi family serious delinquency rates fell to .36% in the latest report.-- The Ticker
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Houzz, the leading community of homeowners, design enthusiasts and home design and building professionals! Go to Houzz.com to sign up.  It's free!
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Consumer spending fell $20.5 billion, or 0.2 percent, in April, according to the Commerce Department. In addition, personal income decreased $5.6 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income decreased $16.1 billion, or 0.1 percent.


Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.moneynews.com/Economy/Roach-consumer-recovery-demand/2013/06/04/id/507878?s=al&promo_code=13B56-1#ixzz2VRxEMjiy
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The biggest year-over-year home price increase occurred in six years as values rose 12.1% nationwide in April, according to CoreLogic.
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Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the rate on the 30-year loan jumped to 3.91% from 3.81% last week. That's the highest since March 2012.
The rate on the 15-year loan rose to 3.03% from 2.98%. That's the highest since last May. -- USA Today
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Nat'l Real Eatate Post:
The CFPB is finally issuing guidelines to ML companies including free appraisal reports for borrowers.  That will go over well with the appraiser community!
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I don't put much economic info in this blog, but I couldn't resist this one.
Investors should sell U.S Treasurys and buy bank stocks because bonds may be headed for a “crash,” according to Bank of America Corp.
“It’s hard to believe that the greatest bond bull market in history will end without some bloodshed,” Michael Hartnett, the bank’s chief investment strategist, recently wrote in a client note.


Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.moneynews.com/FinanceNews/Bank-of-America-Treasurys-Crash-Bonds/2013/06/03/id/507628?s=al&promo_code=13B1E-1#ixzz2VS9BkwzU
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H.R. 1077 and S.R. 949 are being encouraged by the National Association of Mortgage Brokers.  The bills are gaining steam.  They are the same, just in the different houses of congress.  These bills protect the low to moderate home buyer, the consumer, the small business owner.  They give the consumer the right to choose the mortgage lender.  The administration doesn't like these bills and is trying to sway Congress from passing them. -- Rick Bettencourt for Origination News
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Reverse mortgages were suppose to be wonderful, but the FHA is looking for a billion dollar bailout because these mortgages aren't working.
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Jill Pierce is Team Leader for RealEstateAuctions.com

http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/?p=16409

http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/?p=16409  This is a celebration of the life of the author Jack Vance.  It is the best eulogy I have ever read. 

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Housing industry problems

"This is not a natural recovery," says John Husing.

"We have artificially low interest rates, and low supply," Sean O'Toole said. "You do get an increase in prices, but I don't think you have a real recovery."  Conventional homebuyers are also being muscled out by big investors who have been buying distressed properties in bulk and converting them to rentals.  (This skews the price and demand for housing.) -- Thomas/Reuters 2013 copyright.
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Homebuilder stocks are up across the board except for Ryland Group.  None posted increases or decreases more than 1% except for Hovanian which was up 1.49%. -- Ethan Roberts with MSN Money
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Michigan is having trouble finding enough workers to build homes.  During the recession they retired, left the state or found other jobs.  Right now the projects are just delayed.  Soon they will be impacted and constrained. -- Michigan Radio
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Freddie Mac plans to fine low volume lender $7500 starting January 1, 2014 if they don't sell Freddie at least $5 million in loans per year or service $25 million. -- Brian Collins in Origination News  (So my question is, will this stop small community banks from lending or will it force them to lend more?)
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Nat'l Real Estate Post:
Right now, 71% of mortgages are refi's.  That means at some point loan officers will be hit with plummeting business.  When refi's stop, then some MLO will be out of business if buyers don't pick up the slack.
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Mortgage rates are now at 3.81% and set to continue to rise.
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The Detroit Blight Authority is scheduling to completely clear about 15 blocks of deserted housing.  It should be interesting to watch to see if and how Detroit rebuilds.  In Cuyoga County, they plan to demolish another 20,000 vacant houses.  To rebuild, I think we need jobs first.
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"There is one quality which one must possess to win, and that is definiteness of purpose, the knowledge of what one wants, and a burning desire to possess it." -- Napoleon Hill
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The supply of homes in Atlanta is now 3.6 months which is a seller's market.  -- Mark Camp with Prudential Georgia Realty
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Habit 4 of The 25 Habits of Highly Successful People by Stephan Schiffman says Take the Lead.  Confidently take control of the sale cycle.  People want to know that you are in charge of your part of the sales cycle.  But they don't want to be bullied or treated gruffly.  We must present ourselves by not only in a way of serving our client, but in a way where we are serving with authority.  We need a sympathetic ear and need to ask questions, but then we need to confidently and with authority let the prospect know how the transaction will proceed.  And we need to do it all with a genuine smile.  A confident and pleasant leader will get a lot more referrals than someone who's too pushy or too weak. --Reviewed by Rick Floyd of the Real Estate Mortgage Network.
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Real Estate




CoreLogic: 4.2 million homes in path of hurricane storm-surge






By Kerri Ann Panchuk
• May 31, 2013 • 7:48am

A leader is best when people barely know he exists, when his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: we did it ourselves.” –Lao Tzu
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One of the central lessons of the Iraq War is that regime change necessitates nation building, a process that is hardly automatic no matter how quickly a despot may be deposed.
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The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development announced Friday that it will provide $109 million in grants to revitalize public and HUD-assisted housing in order to revitalize communities.
Applicants have until Sept. 10, 2013 to apply for FY 2013 Choice Neighborhoods Implementation grants. HUD anticipates awarding four grants with a maximum award of $30 million each. -- Megan Hopkins with HousingWire
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The Treasury Department and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly agreed to allow the Making Home Affordable Program to continue to be available to American families for an additional two years through Dec. 31, 2015. -- Donna Borak
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Nat'l Real Estate Post:
H.R. 1077 is good.  For the details:  http://thenationalrealestatepost.com/2013/05/31/crl-act-before-think/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheNationalRealEstatePost+%28The+National+Real+Estate+Post%29.  It is confusing, but if Brian and Frank say it is good, then it is good.
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Jill Pierce is Team Leader for RealEstateAuctions.com