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Saturday, January 26, 2013

The housing market is on the move!

The top 10 foreclosure states in 2012 per RealtyTrac:

3.11% Florida had 32 houses in 100 in 2012 in foreclosure.

2.7% Nevada had the highest foreclosure rate for five consecutive years ending in 2011.

2.69% Arizona home prices remained 45.1% lower than five years previous.

2.58% Georgia home prices fell 12.3% from mid-2011 to mid-2012 and has the fastest foreclosure processing time in the nation of 37 days.

2.58% Illinois home prices declined 30% between the second quarter of 2007 and the second quarter of 2012.

2.33% California home prices between the second quarter of 2007 and the second quarter of 2012 fell by 41% but in the three years ending in the second quarter of 2012 the prices had rebounded by 7.3%.

1.75% Ohio the 12 months ending in the second quarter of 2012, Ohio home prices fell by 0.5%. Worse yet, Fiserv projects home prices in Ohio to keep falling through mid-2013, and that the state’s real estate market will grow at a slower rate than nearly all other states from mid-2013 through mid-2014. Last year, foreclosure activity in the state increased by 12.8% from the year before. And further driving up the foreclosure rate, the foreclosure processing period takes 217 days in Ohio -- longer than most states.

1.69% Michigan over the five years ending in the second quarter of 2012, home prices fell by 31.9% -- more than all but five other states.

1.66% South Carolina one in every 60 homes was in foreclosure in 2012.  Foreclosure activity increased by 18.9% in the state between 2011 and 2012 versus a 2.7% decrease for the U.S. as a whole.

1.64% Colorado one in every 61 homes was in foreclosure in 2012.
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Deutsche Bank's Riccadonna added that even small moves in home prices can have large effects on consumption, because housing comprises such a significant share of household assets.
"Based on previous analysis, we are projecting home price appreciation of 5-10% in 2013, which translates into a further increase in household assets, i.e. wealth creation, ranging between $860 billion and $1.72 trillion," he said. "To be sure, the wealth effect on consumer spending could be substantial."--jgaffney@housingwire.com
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TBWSDailyShow:  10% of people open emails, but 80% open text messages.  The lesson here is to send less information in a text to get better marketing campaign, just send as many texts as emails to get more information to people who will actually read it.  Use your smart phone to be SMART.  Eztexting.com is from $49.99-$149/month, but the bang for your buck may well be worth it.  You can look for other sites, but try it!  Just don't spam.  Send texts once a month or so.
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For success:

1.  Be present, everything matters, be open to those ideas to make your dream come true
2.  Surround yourself with successful people, seek out mentors
3.  Be coachable, be willing to take the information and do what your mentors tell you to do.

It is never about money, it about success in life. Enrich the life of others.
----Kent Clothier
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Deutsch Bank predicts a 5-10% rise in house prices in 2013.
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A few independent contractors are now reviewing foreclosures.  They received $1.5 billion, but the borrowers and their lawyers only received about twice that. --Gretchen Morgenson
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TBWSDaily Show:
The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council is looking at how to regulate how mortgage companies use social media for advertising.  This applies to real estate companies if they advertise with a mortgage company.  You will need to be RESPA compliant as well as FFIEC compliant.  The FFIEC is a six member panel comprised of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the National Credit Union Administration, the Comptroller of the Currency, the FDIC, the SLC (State Liaison Committees), the CFPB.  Your employer will be required to look at every thing you do on Facebook, the employer will be responsible for legal risk, operational risk, reputational risk, consumer compliance.  On Twitter, you mortgage folks will be required to disclose your NMLS #, but there aren't enough characters to do this!  This social media extends to forums, bulletin boards, virtual worlds and social games.  http://thenationalrealestatepost.com/2013/01/25/social-media-in-feds-crosshairs/#comments.  You really need to see this.  I think we need to contact our congress persons.  This is what we have been hearing about the feds looking at all our Internet communications. 
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Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance survey shows there was no winter decline in home sales or prices.  Current, first-time and investor buyers continued buying despite the season.  Time on market for non-distressed properties is much lower and home traffic indexes are much higher.  This portends a strong spring selling season.  (FINALLY!)

The "number of offers" index rose from 57.3 to 61.5 between November and December. The "closed transactions" index from the survey rose from 51.2 to 54.4 during the same year-end period.

The "sales price" index not only jumped from 58.1 to 61.1 from November to December, but also peaked at its highest level ever recorded.

(Cheer up housing industry professionals, we are on the move again!)
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1.4 million underwater homeowners were bailed out last year according to CoreLogic.-Meg Handley
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The 2 million young people living with their parent during the 2007-2011 economic slump are starting to leave home.  They are starting to buy houses. -Lucia Mutikani
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When taking pictures for marketing, make sure they will encourage buyers to buy instead of turning off those who happen to view them.  I just saw some truly awful marketing pictures.  Please, everyone, check your pictures before using them!
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Michelle Meyer, senior analyst for Bank of America and Merrill Lynch has revised the rise in home prices up to 4.7% for 2013 from 3%.  Between low inventory, more available credit, and price momentum, this looks like a better year for house prices. 







Friday, January 18, 2013

Lessons from the humble toothbrush


Lately, I have been reading an autobiography by Booker T.  Washington.  In the fourth chapter of this book he writes:  “In all my teaching I have watched carefully the influence of the tooth-brush, and I am convinced that there are few single agencies of civilization that are more far-reaching.”  I have decided, therefore, to use the lessons we learn from the humble toothbrush and apply them to auctions. 

1.      Anyone can use it.  Auctions are a quick and easy way to buy or sell property. 

2.     Used properly, it saves time and money and frustration.  Auctions happen in three months or less.  That time saved from being on the market saves paying things like next year’s taxes.  If the auction company (such as RealEstateAuctions.com) uses extensive marketing procedures, many more people will see the information and more buyers will be interested. 

3.     It is cheap.  If you have moved, the auction of the property within a short period of time saves double mortgage or rent payments, double property taxes and double HOA fees. 

4.     It is simple, a child can understand it.  Your agent can refer your property to the auction company for quick sale, represent you as a buyer or the auction agent can do the work of aggressively marketing and selling your property.  All you need to do is watch the agent work on your behalf.

5.     It is available anywhere in the United States of America.  By the end of 2013, RealEstateAuctions.com will be in all 50 states.  In 2014 the company plans to be international.

6.     The holder (of the property/toothbrush) is personally involved.  As the RealEstateAuctions.com agent markets your property, you get daily updates as to the progress of the marketing.  You no longer sit and wonder what the agent is doing to promote your property. 

7.     It is personal.  The marketing is tailored to your property and you.  There is a marketing fee which is used according to the kind of property being auctioned and the location of the property.

8.     There are 3 kinds.  The Absolute Auction is the most enjoyable since there is no starting price and therefore more buyers are interested.  It also brings a higher price.   The minimum bid is one where all parties know the minimum bid allowed and start there.  The Reserve Auction is the last and most useful for those who have larger mortgages.  The reserve price is unknown to any but the seller, the agent and the bid caller.  

9.     It sets you apart from those who do not use it.  You will be able to stand tall and with pride when your property sells within three months while your former neighbors’ properties languish for months or years with no buyers.

 

Housing is looking good!

Richard Fischer, president of Dallas's Federal Reserve bank: 
"We recommend that TBTF (too big to fail) financial institutions be restructured into multiple business entities," Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, said in remarks prepared for delivery at the National Press Club in Washington.


Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Fed-Fisher-break-up-banks/2013/01/16/id/471798?s=al&promo_code=11FB2-1#ixzz2IL39CGsM
This means JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley.  Already many small banks have gone out of business or been taken over by larger banks due to the excessive IT requirements of the Dodd-Frank bill.  Doing this would allow more options for home buyers when looking for a mortgage.
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kpanchuck@housingwire.com:
Housing starts were up 12.1% from November to December ending 2012 and up 36.9% year over year.  WOW!  Now if the banks will loan to buyers, we will be in great shape in the real estate industry. 
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jgaffney@housingwire.com reports:
Deutsche Bank analysts Joseph LaVorgna and Carl Riccadonna "if the pace of housing starts increases over the next year by the amount that builders' sentiment implies, then the contribution from residential construction in the GDP accounts should double, as well, from 30 bps to 60 bps per quarter."  My question is how will the impact of increased taxes and health insurance costs impact the discressionary income of US citizens; and how will this impact the purchasing power of the public expecially the 18-34 year olds?
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TBWSDailyShow:
GoldmanSachs assessment management rose +$26 billion in Q4 for a total of $854 billion; investment banking rose 13% in 2012 for a total of $4.93 billion; securities trading +36% to $2.3 billion in Q4 for a total of $8.21 billion.  However since compensation is the largest expense for the company, compensation has only risen 6% to 38% of gross revenues to pay the salaries of this group.  This is down from 42% from a year earlier.  They only paid our $12.9 billion in salaries, bonuses and differed stocks.  The median income is down to $399,506 for a Goldman employee.  Jamie Dimon of JPMorganChase had his salary cut in half down to $11.5 million/year. 

According to the former chairman of AIG, Hank Greenburg, they are considering suing the US gov't for the bailout.AIG feels they got ripped off for borrowing $182 billion to stay afloat.  This after a commercial which says thank you to the American people for the bailout money. All this happened in just a week. (My question is why if AIG runs an expensive commercial saying thank you, then it decides to file suit for the bailout.) 

However, the tough rules and regulations which forced the big banks to cut salaries and other compensation are not being enforced equally among the large and small banks.  The small banks are the ones suffering from the rule enforcement.
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kpanchuck@housingwire.com
CFPB rules now forbid dual tracking which means if someone applies for a loan mod at least 37 days before the scheduled foreclosure sale, servicers must consider and respond to the request.  If the borrower accepts the foreclosure alternative, they must be given time to accept the offer.  And, borrowers must be informed of all loss mitigation options after the borrower has missed two consecutive mortgage payments.
" ...servicing employees are responsible for alerting borrowers who miss information on loan modification applications and for ensuring documents reach the right personnel for processing. The contacts also have to provide continuous updates to the borrower on loan modifications."
"The CFPB says borrowers can no longer be surprised by forced-placed insurance policies attached to their accounts. If such a transaction is required, the servicer must provide advance notice and pricing information before charging consumers. In addition, a servicer has to have a reasonable basis for concluding a borrower lacks this type of insurance before acquiring a policy. When servicers do buy insurance and find out it was not needed, the policy must be terminated within 15 days with all premiums refunded. '  This sounds good to me!
To read the whole story go to  http://www.housingwire.com/news/2013/01/16/cfpb-launches-national-mortgage-servicing-rules.
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Spanish unemployment sits at an astonishingly high 26.6 percent, Greek unemployment at 26 percent, 16.3 percent in Portugal, and 14.6 percent in Ireland.  And we think we have it bad!

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Looks like all the (big) lenders have good increases in profits for 2012.  One of my connections in the Philippines says real estate is booming there as well.
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According to CoreLogic’s HPI report, all but six states experienced annual price gains in November: Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.

Conversely, the five states with the highest home price appreciation are Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, North Dakota and California.
mhopkins@housingwire.com
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I want you to see what Larry Edelson thinks:  "Forgive me for being blunt, but our leaders in Washington are totally inept. Worse, I think they’re a bunch of self-aggrandizing egomaniacs that don’t have a clue what they’re doing ... nor the foggiest notion of what a government should truly be."

"Belgium dumped $491 million of Treasuries ... Denmark, $628 million ... Germany, $358 million ... Greece, $109 million ... Ireland, a whopping $4.74 billion ... Italy, $192 million ... Luxembourg, $695 million ... Turkey, $1.8 billion ... and the U.K. — a staggering $19 billion."  That's US treasuries he is referring to.  Hang on for a bumpy ride.  What will this do to the housing market? 
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The Fed has no idea what it will do about monetary easing and the unemployment problem.  One day I hear one thing, the next day I hear something else.  Maybe we just need to audit the fed and get their collective minds off messing with the economy. 





Friday, January 11, 2013

Increase business with new advertising venues


There are all sorts of information bits relating to advertising and social media in the news in the last week. 

1.       Mobile apps are growing in popularity and utility.  Look in to it for your business.

 

2.       Check out Revestor mobile app for better real estate investor decisions.

 

3.       Tweet for 10 minutes a day between 1p and 3p Monday through Thursday. Change it up, avoid being salesy with every tweet. Have fun, ask questions. Spend 5 minutes replying to old tweets. Use Google Analytics to track the number of visitors to your site. Experiment to see what happens and what works for your business.

 

4.       Corsera.org- take the world's best courses online for free from the world's best universities.  You need to continue learning.

 

5.      TBSWDailyShow:

In 2013 the average time a homeowner would stay in their home was 13 years, in 2009 it was 20 years. The average time an agent would stay in real estate is 5 yrs. Therefore if you are not an average agent, market to your past clients because while they may not be buying homes, they know people who are in the market for new digs. On average 30% of buyers are first time buyers and 63% are repeat buyers. The average age of a first time buyer is 31 and the average age of a repeat buyer is 53. 88% of buyers use the Internet, 85% use real estate agents, 55% call on yard signs, 45% go to open houses, 30% (and dropping) check newspapers and only 19% check the real estate magazines. Therefore, maximize your marketing dollars and market where buyers put their eyes.

6.      Google+ is the next instrument on the web to include in your advertising arsenal.  I have yet to research this one.

With all this information out there, how much of it are you using?  I personally hate using Facebook, but it is valuable.  So, this year, I will learn to use it to market my company, realestateauctions.com and personal auctions.  What will you do to maximize your advertising this year? 

But, when you do all this on the Internet, don’t forget the human, one-on-one interaction that will boost your business over the top. 

Advertising instruments

The Medicare surtax is now in place.  Now if an individual makes more than $200,000 or a couple makes more than $250,000, there is a 3.8% tax on the sale of the house.  The home sales are considered investment income. 
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According to Jamie Dimon, in a crisis “You learn the good and the bad about people and that’s invaluable to find out who those people are. Invaluable.”  Remember this when you are in a crisis of your own.
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TBWSDailyShow:
Appraisals-True market value has been the lowest price the seller is willing to take and the highest price the buyer is willing to pay.  Now the market value is the price the appraiser is willing to bring the property in at.  This is lower than the seller is willing to take and lower than the buyer is willing to pay.  This is because of the lag in using comps that are 6 months old or more.  Since there have been few purchases, and those were low, in the last year, the market value of the appraisal is low and a good buy.
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TBWSDailyShow:  The national AMC Costar has set the rates for appraisals- $450 for conventional appraisals and $475 for the other ones.  This will allow lenders to close loans a bit faster since they won't need to redo the bottom line they charge for the fees if things change.

Have you changed your vacation message?
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TBSWDailyShow:
In 2013 the average time a homeowner would stay in their home was 13 years, in 2009 it was 20 years.  The average time an agent would stay in real estate is 5 yrs.  Therefore if you are not an average agent, market to your past clients because while they may not be buying homes, they know people who are in the market for new digs.  On average 30% of buyers are first time buyers and 63% are repeat buyers.  The average age  of a first time buyer is 31 and the average age of a repeat buyer is 53.  88% of buyers use the Internet, 85% use real estate agents, 55% call on yard signs, 45% go to open houses, 30% (and dropping) check newspapers and only 19% check the real estate magazines.  Therefore, maximize your marketing dollars and market where buyers put their eyes.
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TBWSDailyShow:
There is a growing consensus among the Fed members to end QEIII before the unemployment rate hits 6.5%.  That is why interest rates have blipped up recently.
Created by Fraunhaufer Institute- an app to open door locks.  The app uses something called NFC-near field communications-most smart phones already have this ability.  It is a lot like the supra key.

Corsera.org- take the world's best courses online for free from the world's best universities.
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TBWSDailyShow:
Paradigm shift from foreclosures to short sales.  There are 13.5 million homes under water on as a conservative estimate.  Therefore, look to market to those home owners for sales in this year.
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For the first time federal regulators are writing regulations concerning borrowing, that loans can no longer be written for more than 43% of the borrower's income.  No jumbo or balloon loans.
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Tweet for 10 minutes a day between 1p and 3p Monday through Thursday.  Change it up, avoid being salesy with every tweet.  Have fun, ask questions.  Spend 5 minutes replying to old tweets.  Use Google Analytics to track the number of visitors to your site.  Experiment to see what happens and what works for your business.
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Check out Revestor mobile app for better real estate investor decisions.
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The first attack on the mortgage interest deduction has come.  Families with income of $350k or higher will pay $500 more in taxes in 2013.
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TBWSDailyShow:
New CFPB regulations:  NO DOC loans are now not allowed.  Neither are NO interest loans, NO Negative Amortization loans, loans over 30 yrs, no debt to income (gross income) ratio over 43%, and not balloon payments.
However, the borrower is still allowed to sue the lender if they can not pay on the loan because of the poor spending decisions of the borrower. Again, the Gov't has removed personal accountability!  (This is nuts.)