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Monday, February 25, 2013

Frank-Dodd will kill the housing market

New HUD regulations say:

'in a nutshell, HUD said a lending practice that has an “unjustified discriminatory effect” can alone constitute discriminatory lending...'

More laws, more regulations, more rules, more confusion.

Rep. Scott Garrett (R-NJ) says
"For example, lenders could relax their loan approval standards to ensure there's no disparate impact violation. This would revive the economic insanity of providing loans to those that have no ability to pay."  -kpanchuck@housingwire.com
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"Finish each day and be done with it.  You have done what  you could.  Some blunders and absurdities have crept in; forget about them as soon as you can.  Tomorrow is a new day, you shall begin is serenely and with too high a spirit to be encumbered with your old nonsense." Ralph Waldo Emerson
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We lost 11,630 farms last year.  If you want to be the one driving an expensive sports car in the future, go into farm science and become a farmer.  We all need to eat and who will feed us?
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TBWSDailyShow:
FHA is officially on the 2013 high risk list of government programs along with the Management of Federal Oil and Gas Fields, Strategic Human Capital Management, Weapons Systems Acquisition.  This means the Government Accountablility's Office has deemed them overspent.  They are all in the red.  The former FHA's commissioner, Dave Stevens, said that if FHA's role got too big it could be bad for the housing market.   FHA can draw from the Treasury, but the negative numbers are all just bad accounting which I have explained in past blogs.   Much of FHA's problems came from allowing loans which were bad from the moment they were funded.  As the loans failed, the fund was dragged down with the falling home values.   And the CFPB has only implemented 48% of the 248 new rules in the Frank-Dodd bill. This is scaring the lenders who don't know how to or if they will be able to implement the whole Frank-Dodd bill.  If FHA must make a draw from the Treasury, loans from there will slow to a crawl.  Those loans cover most of the low to moderate income purchases.  Until stocks take a breather, bonds and mortgage backed securities will suffer.  (I know this is a lot of choppy info, but there was much info in a short amt of time. Take it up with the guys, Frank and Brian).
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Herman Thordsen wrote a white paper on the Frank-Dodd and the CFPB issues concerning mortgages and how we all will be affected.  It is a difficult read, but complete if you want to try it.  Look for "Get Ready for Disparate Impact" by this guy if you want some heavier reading.
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According to GoldmanSachs:

"Our forecast points to steady increases in home sales going forward. We expect total existing home sales to increase to 5.2 million in 2013 and 5.7 million in 2016," said analysts Hui Shan and Jari Stehn. "We also project new single-family home sales to reach 750,000 in 2016."
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TBWSDailyShow:
Zombie Foreclosures- when the owners hand over the keys to the lender and walk away.  But are still on the hook for taxes, hoa fees, etc.  If the bank doens't actually (legally) foreclose for a couple of years, the home owner still can't buy another house for 3 yrs after the actual foreclosure.  Foreclosures also ruin your credit for 3 yrs or more.
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The percent of underwater mortgages dropped from 31.1 to 27.5.  However, 13.8 million are still underwater...according to Zillow.
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