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Sunday, June 9, 2013

Fannie and Freddie in the news again.

Mortgage rates to be 4% by the end of 2013 says Fannie Mae and National Association of Realtors.
Sonja Bullard at Angel Oak--
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Although 90% of renters expect to purchase a home in the future, most believe it would be difficult to get a mortgage today, according to respondents to Fannie Mae’s recent survey. -- Christine Mlynski at HousingWire
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If you happen to be in Columbus (Georgia) and see a flaming car launched from a bridge, it may not be some hapless Alabaman attempting to cross the river after saying, "Hold my beer, and y'all watch this...." as "Need for Speed" is filming in town and apparently that requires flinging lit cars off bridges.  Todd Rehm in GaPundit
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Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher just ended the discussion.  He has given the "Sell" signal.  Let's see how this affects the housing market. 
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"In the first quarter of 2013, homeowners' equity grew by more than $815 billion, reaching its highest level since the first quarter of 2008." Kurt Usowoski
Purchases of existing and new homes remain strong, with existing-home sales up from 411,700 in March to 414,200 in April, according to data gathered from the National Association of Realtors. Meanwhile, new home sales rose from 37,000 in March to 37,800 in April, says data from the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD. -- cmlynski@housingwire.com
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Millennials are wanting to buy homes, but as of yet are not embracing large amounts of debt.  We should see in the next several years what will entice them into the housing market. 
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The recovery in the housing market will continue to strengthen this year and next year, according to a group of bank economists.
They are forecasting that new home sales will be up 25% this year compared to 2012 and home prices will rise 5% to 6% in 2013 and 2014 based on the Federal Housing Finance Agency house price index. -- Brian Collins in Origination News
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Nat'l Real Estate Post:
Congress is continuing  to discuss divesting the federal gov't of Fannie and Freddie.  The G-fees will continue to rise to entice private mortgages back into the market.  FHA on the other hand is showing a $16 billion shortfall.  (My question is does this account for all the different accounts FHA has or are they only allowed to use money in one account?)
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12 clear signals that the US economy is about to really slow down:
#1 The average interest rate on a 30 year mortgage has risen above 4 percent for the first time in more than a year.

#2 The decline in the number of mortgage applications last week was the largest drop that we have seen since June 2009.

#3 Mark Hanson is reporting that "mass layoffs" have occurred at three large mortgage institutions...

This morning I was made aware that three large private mortgage bankers I follow closely for trends in mortgage finance ALL had mass layoffs last Friday and yesterday to the tune of 25% to 50% of their operations staff (intake, processing, underwriting, document drawing, funding, post-closing).

This obviously means that my reports of refi apps being down 65% to 90% in the past 3 weeks are far more accurate than the lagging MBA index, which is likely on its' way to print multi-year lows in the next month.

#4 It was just announced that average hourly compensation in the United States experienced its largest drop since 2009 during the first quarter of 2013.

#5 As I wrote about the other day, the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index declined to 49.0 in May. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction. That was the first contraction in manufacturing activity in the U.S. that we have seen since 2009.

#6 The inventory to sales ratio has hit a level not seen since 2009. That means that there is a lot of inventory sitting out there that people are not buying.

#7 According to the Commerce Department, the demand for computers dropped by a stunning 9 percent during the month of April.

#8 As I noted in a previous article, corporate revenues are falling at Wal-Mart, Proctor and Gamble, Starbucks, AT&T, Safeway, American Express and IBM.

#9 Job growth at small businesses is now at about half the level it was at the beginning of the year.

#10 The stock market is starting to understand that all of these numbers indicate that the U.S. economy is really starting to slow down. The Dow was down 216.95 points on Wednesday, and it dropped below 15,000 for the first time since May 6th.

#11 The S&P 500 has now fallen more than 4 percent since May 22nd. Is this the beginning of a market "correction", or is this something much bigger than that?

#12 Japanese stocks are now down about 17 percent from the peak of May 22nd. Japan has the third largest economy on the planet and it is one of the most important trading partners for the United States. A major financial crisis in Japan would have very serious implications for the U.S. economy.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com
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Jill Pierce is Team Leader for RealEstateAuctions.com

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