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Sunday, November 11, 2012

Basel III may be killed or at least postponed.

Good news from Christina Mlynski in HousingWire:

"The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued notices Friday to postpone current regulatory capital rules for the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision until an unspecified date."  Because of this the cost of real estate transactions will remain the same and banks will continue lending at current levels instead of tightening requirements.  Let's all rejoice!  Pray that Basel III will be killed entirely.  (http://www.housingwire.com/news/bank-regulators-delay-date-basel-iii-capital-requirements)
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The Dodd-Frank bill is coming under numerous lawsuits.  Some litigants are winning the legal fight to eliminate regulations.  Since Romney didn't win the election, the big companies are going to court to fight this bill.  So far the courts are favorable to the companies bringing the suites. 
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According to TBSW:

According to LPS, mortgage delinquencies are up.  They are at the highest level in four years.  They expect more refi's and short sales in the coming months. 

Fannie and Freddie are in the black for the first time in 6 yrs.  Does this mean we will keep the GSE's?
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CMlynski reports in HousingWire:

"The 15-year FRM averaged 2.69%, with an average 0.7 point. This decreased from last week, which averaged 2.7%. The 15-year FRM average was 3.3% a year prior."  This is good news for buyers.    With housing prices rising and inventory down,  we need all the good news we can get.  http://www.housingwire.com/content/freddie-mac-mortgage-rates-remain-near-record-lows
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According to Cmlynski in HousingWire:

"On Nov. 1, the Federal Housing Finance Agency put in to place the short sale guidelines for both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The guides will provide a more consistent and efficient approval process for servicers and borrowers."

Fannie Mae is happy with it's bulk REO sale and is planning on doing more.  But, they don't sound as though it will be the way of the future.  Just another tool in the shed.
http://www.housingwire.com/news/fannie-mae-pleased-reo-bulk-sale-pilot
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According to TBSW:

The median housing price is up 7.6% from this time last year. 

Also, if you hear that HUD is broke, don't believe it.  They have more capital than they did 4 yrs ago.  It is just in a different account, but can be moved back to where it will be counted as following the law as to how much they must have.

The Mortgage Relief Act has not been extended.  It expires at the end of the year.  This will decrease home sales by 20%.  This is the act which, during a short sale or loan modification, allows the  principle not to be taxed as income.  If it is not extended, distressed home owners will prefer to go into foreclosure or bankruptcy rather than be taxed when they cannot afford it.  The average debt forgiveness on the average home is about $65,000. 

15% of home sales contracts are falling through.  The average credit score Fannie Mae rejected is now 734, two points higher than a year ago, and the average down payment rejected is 19%.  This is because the powers-that-be are downsizing Fannie and Freddie.  So, there will be fewer loans. 

Reasonable underwriting standards  must be established.  We, also, need to keep the mortgage deduction in order to encourage a fragile housing market.

Because of superstorm Sandy, Barry Habib expects mortgage rates to fall again.  We will see.
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Half of the community banks expect to make the choice in the next year of whether or not to stay independent.  This is due to Basel III and Frank-Dodd. 

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